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Pertumbuhan  Ekonomi  Indonesia, Kuartal I Masih Minus, Antara Peluang Dan Tantangan

Oleh : Iskandar Surya,MBA,PhD.

Sebagaimana diketahui selama kuartal I tercatat beberapa indikator ekonomi menunjukan pertumbuhan yang positif.walaupun masih belum dapat memberikan kontribusi yang significant untuk mencapai pertumbuhan ekonomi indonesia menjadi positif.menurut perkiraan ekonomi indonesia pada kuartal I ditutup minus antara 0,9% s/d 1.1%. Beberapa bencana banjir yang melanda kota-kota besar sedikit menghambat pertumbuhan. hal positif lainnya ada keseriusan pemerintah dalam mendatangkan vaksin dari berbagai negara diiringi dengan kegiatan vaksinasi terhadap beberapa kelompok mayarakat sebagai garda depan.tercatat hingga akhir maret 2021 tercapai 22,23% Total Sasaran Vaksinasi: 181.484.465 0rang Total SDM Kesehatan, Petugas Publik, dan Lansia: 40.349.051 orang..
Sebagai gambaran kuartal I sbb :
1. Penerimaan negara terealisasi sebesar Rp 219,2 triliun atau 12,6% target APBN 2021. Realisasi ini tumbuh 0,7% lebih baik dari periode yang sama pada tahun 2020 yang mana mengalami minus sebesar 0,1% .

Adapun perhitungan pendapatan tersebut terdiri dari penerimaan pajak, bea dan cukai serta Penerimaan Negara Bukan Pajak (PNBP). Penerimaan pajak sampai dengan akhir Februari 2021 atau mencapai hingga 11,88% dari Target APBN 2021 atau setara dengan Rp 146,13 triliun 2021. Dan dibandingkan tahun lalu masih minus 4,84%

Penerimaan pabean dan cukai sampai dengan akhir Februari 2021 mencapai Rp 35,62 triliun atau 16,57 % dari target APBN 2021. Dibandingkan tahun sebelumnya, penerimaan ini naik 42,11%.

PNBP, realisasi sampai dengan akhir Februari 2021 mencapai Rp 37,3 triliun atau 12,5% dari target APBN 2021. Realisasi ini berarti masih minus sebesar 3,7% dibandingkan tahun sebelumnya.

2. Belanja Negara sampai dengan Akhir Februari 2021 realisasi sebesar Rp 282,7 triliun atau 10,3% dari APBN 2021. Belanja ini naik 1,2% dibandingkan tahun sebelumnya.

Realisasi belanja ini terdiri dari belanja Pemerintah Pusat sebesar Rp 179,7 triliun dan Transfer ke Daerah dan Dana Desa (TKDD) sebesar Rp 103,0 triliun.

Belanja Pemerintah Pusat terutama didukung oleh pertumbuhan Belanja Kementerian/Lembaga (K/L) sebesar 15,8% (yoy) akibat peningkatan belanja modal untuk proyek infrastruktur dasar lanjutan tahun 2020 serta infrastruktur konektivitas. Kemudian pertumbuhan belanja barang sebesar 13,5% yang digunakan untuk penanganan Covid-19 termasuk pelaksanaan program vaksinasi.

Selanjutnya, belanja non-K/L juga naik sebesar 6,1% didorong oleh realisasi subsidi energi. Selain itu, realisasi belanja bansos K/L mencapai 17% dari APBN 2021. Melihat hasil pertumbuhan negatif di Kuartal Ii ini maka dapat diprediksi ekonomi di kuartal II-2021 diharapkan dapat tumbuh sekitar 2,1%. Sebagaimana diketahui proyeksi ini melonjak dari realisasi pertumbuhan ekonomi pada kuartal II-2020 yang minus 5,32%

Peluang pertumbuhan ekonomi di kuartal II-2021 nanti tentu akan membaik, apabila penanganan vaksin dapat berjalan mulus dimana diharapkan vaksin massal di bulan April 2021 juga diharapkan memberikan sentimen positif bagi pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia.
Di sisi lain momen Ramadan,Idulfitri dan kegiatan mudik juga terjadi pada periode kuartal Ii tersebut.pada event tersebut beberapa sektor perdagangan dan manufaktur akan semakin bergeliat dan diharapkan memberikan kontribusi pertumbuhan menujuh positif.

Sektor barang kebutuhan harian dan konsumtif akan tumbuh.demikian pula kebijakan BI mengeluarkan ketentuan uang muka nol % bagi sektor properti dan otomotif yang gilirannya bisa mendongkrak setor otonomotif yg lesu mencapai titik terendah selama satu dekade ini.
Terhadap kebijakan tersebut pihak Bank dan multidana perlu mensikapi dengan bijaksana dan membaca peluang dan resiko repayment capacity para konsumennya.

Pembatasan dan larangan mudik lebaran dari pemerintah juga perlu disikapi dengan bijaksana oleh para otoritas daerah.Larangan pemerintah terhadap mudik lebaran lebih utama adalah mengantisipasi terciptanya cluster baru penyebaran covid-19.tetapi perlu disadari bahwa pembatasan pergerakan tersebut ( PSPB ) tersebut secara langsung mempengaruhi pergerakan ekonomi daerah yang semakin lesu dan pada keseluruhannya berimplikasi kepada pertumbuhan ekonomi Nasional.demikian pula sektor pariwisata menjadi terimbas..restoran rumah makan dan turunan sebagainya.

Adanya peluang dan tantangan tersebut diharapkan dapat disikapi dengar baik agar pemulihan ekonomi akan terakselerasi di level positif pada kuartal II-2021 dan seterusnya menunjukkan perbaikan Sehingga di 2021 akan terjadi perbaikan yang signifkan kalau hitung-hitungan momentum Kuartal II tersebut bisa mengangkat kondisi krisis ekonomi tersebut menjadi kondisi tumbuh.Pasar senantiasa akan mengikuti bagaimana dinamika perekonomian tercermin pada perilaku masyakrakat.

Pemerintah terus berusaha melakukan gebrakan-gebrakan progran pemulihan ekonomi dalam negeri. Guna mengakselerasi pertumbuhan ekonomi di kuartal II-2021, pemerintah pun kembali menggeluarkan dua stimulus baru yaitu:
1. Perluasan diskon pajak penjualan atas barang mewah (PPnBM) untuk kapasitas silinder 1.500 cc hingga 2.500 cc. Insentif ini diklasifikasikan untuk dua jenis mobil.

Untuk segmen kendaraan 4×2 dengan kapasitas mesin di atas 1.500 cc hingga 2.500 cc yang memenuhi syarat dilakukan secara bertahap. Diskon pajak sebesar 50% dari tarif normal akan diberikan pada masa pajak April-Agustus 2021. Kemudian 25% dari tarif normal pada masa pajak September-Desember 2021.kemudian diskon PPnBM atas tambahan segmen kendaraan 4×4 dengan kapasitas mesin di atas 1.500 cc hingga 2.500 cc yang memenuhi syarat juga dilakukan secara bertahap. Diskon pajak sebesar 25% dari tarif normal akan diberikan pada masa pajak April-Agustus 2021. Kemudian 12,5% dari tarif normal pada masa pajak September-Desember 2021.

2. Stimulus kredit usaha mikro kecil menengah (UMKM) sebesar Rp 400 Pemerintah terus berusaha untuk mengerek pemulihan ekonomi dalam negeri. Guna mengakselerasi pertumbuhan ekonomi di kuartal II-2021, pemerintah pun kembali menggelontorkan dua stimulus baru.

Pertama, perluasan diskon pajak penjualan atas barang mewah (PPnBM) untuk kapasitas silinder 1.500 cc hingga 2.500 cc. Insentif ini diklasifikasikan untuk dua jenis mobil.

Untuk segmen kendaraan 4×2 dengan kapasitas mesin di atas 1.500 cc hingga 2.500 cc yang memenuhi syarat dilakukan secara bertahap. Diskon pajak sebesar 50% dari tarif normal akan diberikan pada masa pajak April-Agustus 2021. Kemudian 25% dari tarif normal pada masa pajak September-Desember 2021.

Lalu, diskon PPnBM atas tambahan segmen kendaraan 4×4 dengan kapasitas mesin di atas 1.500 cc hingga 2.500 cc yang memenuhi syarat juga dilakukan secara bertahap. Diskon pajak sebesar 25% dari tarif normal akan diberikan pada masa pajak April-Agustus 2021. Kemudian 12,5% dari tarif normal pada masa pajak September-Desember 2021.

Kedua, stimulus kredit usaha mikro kecil menengah (UMKM) sebesar Rp 400 miliar yang direncanakan dapat dinikmati pada 20 April 2021. Tujuannya untuk meningkatkan permodalan . Walau begitu discount PPn BM tersebut akan kurang berfungsi karena hanya dinikmati sebahagian kecil masyarakat.dan proteksi atas kenaikan harga jual kenderaan dan properti perlu disiasati dengan bijak pula.

Saat ini mayoritas masyarakat kelas menengah cenderung menahan untuk beli kendaraan bermotor.karena adanya larangan mudik. Selain itu, aktivitas kelas ekonomi tersebut kebanyakan masih dilakukan dari rumah.

Sementara, untuk kredit UMKM bisa gagal, karena realitasnya, banyak debitur yang belum masuk ke sistem perbankan tergantung dari segmen UMKM yg dibiayai pemerintah ingin memberikan peluang supply kepada UMKM, maka perbankan harus memberikan relaksasi prasyarat agar kredit lebih mudah.

“Karena realitanya perbankan akan benar-benar prundent, tidak sembarangan memberikan kredit ke UMKM. Sehingga, perlu pendekatan analisis kredit yang berbeda untuk UMKM, apalagi kan adanya pembatasan dalam pandemi tersebut. Ekonomi Indonesia pada kuartal II-2021 dengan sendirinya akan pulih, sebab aktivitas ekonomi lebih baik dibanding periode sama tahun lalu.”

Presiden Jokowi juga telah meminta porsi kredit UMKM ditingkatkan di atas 30%.
Nah .ini menjadi menarik apabila peluang UMKM harusnx ya ditujuhkan kepada produk yang dihasilkan untuk mengurangi komposisi Impor kita.karena tercatat import kita masih cukup tinggi

Prediksi dan Indonesia economic outlook 2021 tersebut ditulis oleh : Direktur Utama PT Keishin Power Technology, Iskandar Surya MBA,PhD

Bagaimana tanggapan anda kerabat yang budiman ?

Conveyor Of Public Opinion merupakan lulusan pendidikan pasca sarjana bidang bisnis dan keuangan, State Univercity of San Fransisco, Amerika serikat.

Saat ini bergelut di beberapa perusahaan ekspor dan perdagangan global lain, aktif dalam menggerakan ekonomi kemaritiman dan berswadaya dengan sumber daya nusantara dan berperan aktif dalam hampir setiap kebijakan perdagangan lokal dalam rangka pembangunan perokonomian nasional madani

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